Why Blair will lose a referendum on the EU constitution

The polls are very bad for Blair at the moment. The Telegraph has a 3 to 1 “No” vote. It is often said that the polls were similarly bad prior to the 1975 referendum but in the end that was carried by a 2 to 1 margin. Ergo, it can be done again.

I don’t think it can. There are some big differences between then and now:

1. We know what the EU is like
2. Then all the main political parties were in favour. Now they are not.
3. Then most of the papers were in favour. Now most of them are not.
4. Then, our economy was a laughing stock. Now it is the rest of Europe that has the problem
5. Then, most businessmen were in favour. Now things are much closer.
6. Although I don’t know what it was like then, now there are plenty of celebs prepared to endorse a “No” campaign.

Quite frankly it is hopeless. So, why is Blair holding one? It could be that he is deluded. The other possibility is that he knows the affair is coming to an end and he will use the fact of the referendum as a means of strengthening his negotiating position so that agreement with the rest of the EU becomes impossible. He can then look tough as he starts us on the long journey of disengagement.

We're all Eurosceptics now.