Random thoughts on Michael Howard - Part I

The apparent elevation by acclamation of Michael Howard to the leadership of the Conservative Party is thought provoking to say the least. At present these thoughts (at least to me) are coming thick and fast but not necessarily in any particular order - so this post, and the ones that follow (if indeed they do) may seem a bit like a stream of conciousness.

Framing the question. The questions that matter are: will he win the next general election; if he does, will he be any good, and, if he doesn't, will he be any good for the Conservative Party?

Playing to the public. I find him grating. My mum thinks he's fantastic. This is probably good news (for him). I am amazed he's still around. I thought that he was finished after the Paxman interview (the one in which he was asked the same question 14 times). The thing that really struck me about that interview was how he allowed himself to be stitched up so easily. But the man's got staying power. Ken Clarke was elected to Parliament in 1970. It took Howard another 13 years and 40 rejections.

He's clean. Anyone who can be in high office through the Major years and not be caught up in a scandal ought to be a candidate for cannonization.

He's not particularly ideological. Which I think is bad news. For years I have felt that what the Conservative Party desperately needs is to define itself. What it is and what it isn't. Maybe I'm wrong.

Unity in the Conservative Party? Amazing.

The return of the Magic Circle. Up until the 1960s for as long as anyone could remember the leader of the Conservative Party was selected by "the Magic Circle" - an informal collection of high-ups who, through a process of late night chats and horse-trading eventually came up with a name. The wider party was very definitely not part of the process. For the last 40 years the Conservative Party has experimented with a variety of more democratic alternatives. Now it finally seems to have reverted to what it knows best.

Oh the irony. Hacks will remember how in 1997 Howard was on the verge of cutting a deal with William Hague in which he [Howard] would become leader. At the last minute Hague backed out and stood himself. If only it had been the other way round...

Brian was right. I'm pretty sure that Brian Micklethwait has said what he said on Samizdata before ie that once the Conservative Party sniffed Labour blood then they would unite and get themselves a decent leader.

The curious disappearance of the Tory left. In the 1990 leadership election all the candidates were from the left. Where are they in 2003? It is quite astonishing how the European issue has ceased to be devisive. I really thought that it would only ever be resolved by a bloodbath. What happened?

Don't trust statistics. In the Telegraph today, Howard is making much of the 18% reduction in crime which took place while he was Home Secretary. Unfortunately, he's missing the point. As with so many other things, crime is what you feel. I don't remember feeling that much safer in 1997 than I had in 1993. It's the feeling that counts.